The TES framework: Joint Statistical Modeling and Machine Learning for Network KPI Forecasting

Abstract

The vision of intelligent networks capable of automatically configuring crucial parameters for tasks such as resource provisioning, anomaly detection or load balancing largely hinges upon efficient AI-based algorithms. Time series forecasting is a fundamental building block for network-oriented AI and current trends lean towards the systematic adoption of models based on deep learning approaches. In this paper, we pave the way for a different strategy for the design of predictors for mobile network environments, and we propose the Thresholded Exponential Smoothing (TES) framework, a hybrid Statistical Modeling and Deep Learning tool that allows for improving the performance of network Key Performance Indicator (KPI) forecasting. We adapt our framework to two state-of-the-art deep learning tools for time series forecasting, based on Recurrent Neural Networks and Transformer architectures. We experiment with TES by showcasing its superior support for three practical network management use cases, i.e., (i) anticipatory allocation of network resources, (ii) mobile traffic anomaly prediction, and (iii) mobile traffic load balancing. Our results, derived from traffic measurements collected in operational mobile networks, demonstrate that the TES framework can yield substantial performance gains over current state-of-the-art predictors in the applications considered.